Taliban rift, TTP's rise and AQIS ambitions put South Asia on the edge

New Delhi, Aug 20 (IANS) Relations between Pakistan and the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan have soured over time. This is owing to a variety of factors that also include disputes over the Durand Line and the alleged shielding of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) by the Taliban.

In a bid to counter this, the ISI indulged in a dangerous game by propping up the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is looking at making gains in Afghanistan.

Before the ISKP was formed, the founder of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had made an offer to the Taliban asking the group to join hands with it. Baghdadi was of the view that the Taliban and the Islamic State should join hands in a bid to establish the Islamic Caliphate.

The Taliban was however not agreeable to this offer and felt that it could not play second fiddle to the Islamic State. Moreover, with a US withdrawal in sight, the Taliban wanted to rule the country and did not want any foreign outfit on its soil. Since then, the two groups have been at loggerheads, and their men fight each other quite regularly.

With the TTP upping the ante against the Pakistan establishment and the army facing severe losses, the ISI came up with a plan to overcome this problem. With the relations with the Taliban going down, the ISI backed the ISKP. For the ISKP, this was an acceptable offer since it felt that with the backing of Pakistan, it could make inroads in Afghanistan.

The ISI, on the other hand, expected the ISKP to keep both the TTP and Taliban engaged, so that the heat on the Pakistan army would come down. In doing so, the ISI played an immensely dangerous game, and a new grouping of terror outfits is in the offing.

The TTP too needs more alliances, and according to Intelligence officials, the outfit has been in talks with Al-Qaeda in the Subcontinent (AQIS). Al Qaeda is a known backer of the Taliban and would never hurt its interests in Afghanistan.

The AQIS, set up in 2014, has not had much of an impact in the region. An alliance with the TTP would bode well for the organisation. The TTP could well become an umbrella group for other terror organisations, and this has raised the possibility of an alliance with the AQIS.

If the TTP and AQIS do come together, it would be a stronger grouping. However, the problem is that this is not just a dangerous merger in the context of Pakistan’s security. The AQIS has more interests in India and Bangladesh, and in the long run, such a merger will impact the security of the entire region.

The AQIS has been without a major ally in the region and hence has failed to make the kind of impact it would have wanted to. Such an alliance would bolster the outfit, and it could become stronger.

The major worry would be the security situation in Bangladesh. The border is already tense with several terror groups trying to set up modules in India. Most of these terror groups back Al Qaeda. While the Islamic State too has the support of some groups in Bangladesh, the support base for Al Qaeda is much larger.

Following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, Al Qaeda was quick to react. It released a 12-page statement on its official media outlet, Al-Sahab, backing the movement that led to a change in regime.

"This is not an ordinary incident that the Muslims of Bengal have today risen up in the form of a storm of hate and anger against the faction that had become a symbol of atrocities and conflicts thrust upon Bangladesh, that was exploiting the Muslims of Bangladesh by making them the slave of the polytheist Hindus, and by whose hands the followers of the religion [of Islam] endured crimes and subjugation," the Emir of the AQIS Usama Mahmood had written.

These remarks by the Emir make it amply clear that the primary target is India, as it is a Hindu-majority country. With the AQIS making its intentions clear, the security headache would be the possible alliance with the TTP.

--IANS

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